Weather Excuses Nothing in Economies
Business owners who complain that weather caused slumping sales, fewer homes being built, low stock prices, or decreased consumer confidence sound like a school kid claiming the dog ate his homework. When I hear such lame excuses, I know something else is going on. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-usa-weather-corporate-warnings-idUSBREA1I09120140219
So looking behind the complaints about cold or hot fronts, not looking at them, will explain why the economies of the US and Europe, and by extension the rest of the world economies, seem so anemic. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-usa-housing-builders-analysis-idUSBREA1I03Y20140219
In the home-building industry, a glut of unsold homes, both new and older, explains more than ice-bound roads. Add to that, jobs lost in the Great Recession of 2008 rose to 8.2 M, of which about 2.3 M were in construction. Skilled construction workers simply have moved on and moved out of the building business. Some have retired, some have retrained, some have settled for less. And the confidence of builders has dropped for the same reasons. http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2014/02/18/builder-confidence-drops-in-february-nahbwells-fargo-housing-market-index-shows/
Major economic indicators http://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm#major tell serious economic analysts that weather explains nothing, but troublesome reports about too much heat or too much cold symbolize deeper challenges, according to analysts at http://HamiltonFinanceServices.com. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-04/don-t-buy-carmakers-bad-weather-excuses.html
The future of regional economies depends on larger world economies, and the big picture tells us that major restructuring will take time. A few winners and many more losers will populate news reports as our world shifts from established patterns to a new and less certain order. At least that’s my view, but what do you think?
Jerry Hamilton
