Tag: Ukraine | Hamilton.jerry

April 8, 2014

Is US Posturing Again Over Ukraine Unrest?

Is Kerry Posturing Over Ukraine Unrest?

Today US Secretary of State John Kerry claimed that Russian secret agents and special forces have caused the unrest in several Ukraine areas. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/08/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA370RU20140408 Kerry provided no evidence in support of his claims.

In Luhansk, Ukraine, separatists took temporary control of a government building and raided its armory of rifles and ammunition. Western politicians allege that those separatists also took 60 hostages and secreted bombs throughout the building. Several separatists have denied those Western claims. No proof of the politicians’ claims has been provided any reporters. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-ukraine-crisis-20140408,0,4945134.story

Russian politicians have voiced concerns over Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement expressing fear over potential civil war. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2014/04/08/Russia-Civil-war-in-Ukraine-possible/4831396962909/

To HFS, the obvious issue concerns what Russia might do next. The US and other western politicians appear to be drumming up their domestic support for possible intervention, although to HFS that alternative should be the very last on any list of options. The Russian politicians appear to be waiting anxiously to see how the Russian speakers in Ukraine fare, fearing violence and civil war, but willing if necessary to consider additional action if necessary. None of it sounds good to HFS analysts. What do you think?

March 27, 2014

YouTube Next Internet Shutdown in Turkey

Turkey’s Telecom Authority Blocks YouTube

After Turkey’s telecommunications authority TIB blocked Twitter last week, many Turkey watchers have wondered when the next TIB block might hit. Today YouTube in Turkey reports that its users there cannot access the service. TIB confirms that it took “an administrative measure” against YouTube. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-turkey-youtube-idUSBREA2Q1A420140327

Google, the owner of YouTube, began yesterday to investigate user complaints of no access to YouTube and today the company confirmed that YouTube is down in Turkey. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-turkey-youtube-google-idUSBREA2Q1GF20140327

Google has assured all of its users in Turkey that from the company’s perspective, they have done all that they can do to provide user access and the problem has nothing to do with their technology. However, late last week Google refused to cooperate with Turkish authorities requesting that it voluntarily take down YouTube videos critical of Turkish government corruption. So Google likely expected the TIB action. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304756104579453701510620372

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan claimed yesterday that micro-blogging constitutes “the worst menace to society.” In particular, he chastises the “robot army” for launching cyber attacks against him for political reasons. https://www.vocativ.com/world/turkey-world/turkeys-leader-nearly-banned-twitter-bot-army/

HFS analysts opine that more Internet offenders will likely face future government sanctions, not only in Turkey, but in other political enclaves where free expression faces government controls and censorship. Turkey demonstrates the Internet’s dependency on political connections.

To further illustrate HFS’s point, its analysts note the rapidly disintegrating Ukraine outsourcing business based around computer program developers and project managers. Political unrest tied to Russian military actions has destroyed the economic boom just last year identified as the fourth largest outsourcing operation on the planet. http://www.vocativ.com/world/ukraine-world/ukraines-booming-sector-jeopardy-amid-political-instability-war/

HFS analysts argue that without true economic, political, cultural, and technical independence from all governments, the Internet must evolve into a planet-wide patchwork ultimately controlled by political factions.

What do you think?

March 17, 2014

Russia Wins Referendum In Crimea, Now What?

No Surprise: 95% of Voters in Crimea Vote to Join Russia

More than 95% of voters in yesterday’s referendum support Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine, says chairman of the Sevastopol legislative assembly Yuri Doynikov. http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2014/mar/17/crimea-votes-to-leave-ukraine/

Voter turnout reached 80%. http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_17/Referendum-in-Crimea-official-result-to-be-announced-on-17-March-first-data-show-96-vote-for-Russia-7828/

Both the voting results and world reactions seemed fully predictable. Hague spokesmen called the referendum a mockery. http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/03/17/330130/crimea-result-makes-a-mockery-of-democracy-says-hague.html

Stock markets ended in the red last week before the referendum. http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/126581/stock-market-news-for-march-17-2014

Western governments now mull adding sanctions to those already to be approved later today. http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/14214-crimea-votes-to-join-russia-west-mulls-new-sanctions

HFS analysts forecast continued anxiety in the stock markets despite the referendum, as fallout from Crimean politics appears to have just begun.

What do you think?

March 13, 2014

Can EU Sanctions Against Russia Work Without Chinese and Indian Support?

EU Sets Up For Russian Sanctions, But Where’s China? India?

News from the EU today shows last minute preparation underway to impose sanctions against Russia if it fails to unwind its Crimean venture. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140313 All EU plans mirror US plans to freeze assets of Russian companies.

The list of companies to be sanctioned will likely begin with about 20 names, but as historically occurred, that list will expand to increase sanction pressures. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bf57f81e-a862-11e3-8ce1-00144feab7de.html#axzz2vr5kxYiY

Analysts at http://HamiltonFinanceServices.com (HFS) pose a question based on October 2013 contracts and support agreements between China and Russia for significantly expanded oil and gas exports to China. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/china-russia-energy-idUSL5N0IC10F20131022 The analysts note that pipeline preparations to carry out those 2013 agreements have been completed. Additionally, strong competition between Russian companies to access the Chinese market persist today. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101475550

Further, negotiations now underway contemplate building new pipelines from Russia to India. http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/721066

So HFS poses this question for the EU and US enthusiasts for sanctions against Russia: What do China and India say about sanctions as their economies grow increasingly dependent on Russian oil?

What do you think?

March 12, 2014

Russia Holds Oil Over EU, Despite Threat of US Backed Sanctions

EU Pokes At Russian Bear To Its Peril

A draft seven page document prepared by the EU in cooperation with the US articulates sanctions against Russian citizens holding assets or traveling in the EU. The document will be considered by EU foreign ministers next Monday, 17 March 2014. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/12/us-ukraine-eu-russia-sanctions-idUSBREA2B0QJ20140312

Passage and implementation of the sanctions hinges on whether Russia will halt expansion into the Ukrainian peninsula, Crimea, through its referendum vote in Crimea set for 16 March 2014. http://www.channel4.com/news/ukraine-crisis-uk-to-push-for-travel-bans-on-russian-mps-state-ownership-crimea-companies

To analysts at http://HamiltonFinanceServices.com (HFS) the EU cooperation with the US could easily backfire due to European dependence on Russian petroleum, and if Russia chooses retaliation, not only oil but raw materials for manufacturing could be placed in jeopardy. In the end, say HFS analysts, Russia continues holding the upper hand, and Russia knows it.

What do you think?

March 10, 2014

Kerry 2nd Blunder Will Hurt Ukrainians

Kerry Blunder Will Cost Ukrainians

Saturday US Secretary of State John Kerry told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov the US would “close any available space for diplomacy” if Russia annexes Crimea. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/john-kerry-made-troubling-threat-151446123.html and

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/08/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-idUSBREA270OZ20140308

This is not the first diplomatic blunder for John Kerry. Recall when in September 2013 the US jeopardized Syria when Kerry spouted off about avoiding US force if Assad would surrender chemical weapons. http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/09/10/syri-s10.html

Today, Russia continues its annexation process over Crimea after changing its laws to support annexation of places with Russian speaking people, despite international opposition. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/09/ukraine-crisis-idUSL6N0M606520140309

Analysts at http://HamiltonFinanceServices.com view Secretary Kerry’s remarks as extremely unhelpful, since short of military confrontation, diplomacy offers the only means to unwind the Ukraine crisis. This ‘no more diplomacy’ posture poses the most likely scenario for war, yet obviously the US has no real capacity for acting alone, so HFS analysts wonder whether the UN or other US allies were consulted before the Kerry remarks.

What do you think?

March 3, 2014

2 or 3 Moves Ahead? Gates Advises Obama on Ukraine-Russia Action

Look 2 or 3 Moves Out, Gates Advises Obama on Ukraine-Russia Tensions

When the US Secretary of Defense, an acknowledged expert on Russian politics from a CIA perspective, advises US President Obama to look two or three moves out, as he just did today, one must wonder what the US is truly up to in the face of mounting tensions as Russian tanks and troops gather just east of Crimea. http://news.yahoo.com/obama-must-carefully-calibrate-russia-response-rhetoric-gates-014117221–sector.html

Of course the path looks treacherous, no matter which turns the US takes. A major reason for such danger arises from the fact that the US has no real business intervening in those tensions in the first place. The Ukraine-Russia tensions have a long history, older in some ways than the US as a nation, so no westerner, but especially the US, has either military power or moral credibility to act in the region. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/ukraine-crisis-putin-idUSL6N0LZ0QK20140303

At least Gates realizes that Russian Prime Minister Putin holds huge power on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, partly because Russia maintains a large, mostly modern military force but also because a significant portion of the Ukraine population identifies with a Russian heritage. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine and http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSL6N0M00ZR20140303

If Obama needs to be told to look a few moves out, Obama seems to have lost any contest with Russia before it begins, say analysts at http://HamiltonFinanceServices.com. What do you think? Does the US have any legitimate role in the Ukraine-Russia theater? What real interests does the US have there? Why would the US risk confrontation with Russia after seeking for the past five years to find some friendly balance between the two giants’ domains?

February 7, 2014

Nuland Phone Gaff Gets No Comment

US Diplomat Phone Remarks On YouTube Dis the EU

http://HamiltonFinanceServices.com

Victoria Nuland, a senior US diplomat, has nothing more to say about a leak, allegedly from Russian secret services, on her internal telephone conversation. Her expletive dismissal of the European Union piqued anger from the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but to Nuland the YouTube post of her private diplomatic discussion demonstrated good spy tradecraft. (http://www.voanews.com/content/us-diplomat-no-comment-on-alleged-eu-statement/1846448.html) She took an opportunity in today’s press conference to note that the US does not train or supply Ukrainian protestors, contrary to President Putin’s advisors’ allegations. (http://www.usnews.com/news/newsgram/articles/2014/02/06/putin-adviser-threatens-russian-intervention-in-ukraine)

To me, Nuland’s flippant lack of awareness of how every telephone conversation, but especially those of US high ranking diplomats, has become fair game for all spy organizations, not to mention high tech vigilantes, since the Snowden disclosures about rampant US spying under the PRISM program orchestrated by the US National Security Agency across more than 100 other US spy agencies.

In other words, what goes around comes around. What do you think?